The last few months have been very busy with the March examinations having been successfully completed under the stewardship of Jason Mather at the Johnson Controls Training Academy on 23–24 March 2023. A massive thanks go out to Jason for the ongoing support provided to the branch, IFE members and for staging the venue for the exams.
The recent IFSJ Leaders in Fire Safety and Safety Conference held on 11 May 2023 at the Grosvenor Hotel, Dubai Marina was a great success and the IFE played a major part in the event with Terry Johnson, IFE GCC UAE Branch President, taking the role as the event chairperson. Terry was an ideal candidate for this role at the event as he has a long-standing international presence in the fire and emergency planning community, and has become a regional ambassador as an emergency response executive. The event was an in-person conference that focused on the important topics and verticals from the commercial fire and safety sector, with expert commentary and views provided by a host of high-profile influencers. Over 120 fire-safety experts from all over the world came together to showcase and discuss the advancements in tackling fires. New partnerships and agreements were signed for knowledge sharing and other avenues of collaboration.
Dubai Civil Defence (DCD) led the discussions on key issues such as firefighting innovations, the latest regulations, fire trends and business strategies. A highlight for the local branch was DCD signing a memorandum of understanding (MOU) agreement at the event with the Institution of Fire Engineers to launch a global platform to exchange best practices and share lessons learnt from previous fire incidents. This is well received locally as the branch restructures and focuses on future initiatives and collaboration.
At the outset of the conference, Lieutenant-General Rashid Al Matroushi, DCD Director-General, appeared in a special Artificial Intelligence (AI)-generated video to welcome the delegates. The video was created using ChatGPT and other applications to create a digital version of the Lieutenant-General. During the opening Lieutenant-General Al Matroushi praised the role played by DCD in providing innovative solutions in the field of emergency response.
Brigadier Ali Hassan Al Mutawa, Assistant Director General for Fire and Rescue Affairs in Dubai, signed the agreement with Steve Hamm, chief executive of the Institution of Fire Engineers, the UK-based registered charity established more than a century ago. Brigadier Al Mutawa said: ‘It’s an important partnership for both sides. The new interactive platform will allow members to exchange best practices and what they have learnt from experience.’ Dubai is striving to improve response times to limit damage caused by fires and save lives, he said, sharing with experts his 25 years of experience in dealing with fire incidents in Dubai. He added that more than 80,000 buildings in Dubai are linked to the 24/7 fire alert system and besides innovations and well-trained firefighters, public awareness on fire safety is key to preventing fires.
The DCD Readiness Project was officially launched in January, and uses AI to highlight potential fire incidents and provide innovative solutions in the field of predicting fires. Captain Issa Ahmed Al Mutawa, Director of the Supervision Department at the General Directorate of Civil Defence in Dubai, advised the programme has received international praise and support from the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) as it relies on the use of Big Data technology by linking it with government departments, analyses that data using AI, and predicts the probability of fire accidents based on a database of information on accidents that occurred in the emirate over the last five years.
The programme contributes to identifying the causes of fire for each region and categories of people and accordingly sends educational materials in the form of short text messages to residents in those areas. The department also sends messages containing a link which activates an avatar of an officer who explains safety messages to people in different languages. Captain Al Mutawa said the target is to send five million awareness text messages in two years. For example, a month before the Indian festival of lights – Diwali – the department will send awareness text messages with a virtual officer explaining all safety measures.
AI alerts
DCD has harnessed cutting-edge AI to deliver fire-safety alerts to more than a million residents in at-risk areas since the start of the year. The authority has used advanced technology to analyse six years of fire-incident data to determine how, when and where fires are most likely to occur. Information gathered through the Dubai Readiness programme is used to identify residents who live in fire-prone ‘red zones’, which have recorded the highest number of fires.
Captain Al Mutawa said awareness videos have been generated in 198 languages, ensuring that a crucial safety message reaches all corners of the emirate’s multicultural society. ‘AI is used to analyse data on fires in recent years, identify red zones and the reasons behind the incidents. With a few steps, we can educate people in their language about the most common behaviour that causes fires.’ He said targeted messages are sent during cooler winter months to prevent incidents involving camping fires. Special alerts also target people living in high-rise buildings in collaboration with telecommunication companies Etisalat by e& and du. ‘During winter, there are fires in desert camps, farms and tents because of barbecues, so we send messages about what they can do to prevent them,’ he noted. Smoking on balconies, poor storage of flammable materials, gas leaks, electrical faults and use of firewood or coal to heat rooms are some of the most common causes of fires, he added.
Market update
The global and local markets have been hit by inflation, which is still trending to the previously forecasted global 10% and certain nations will exceed this level. As the cost of energy is a driving factor, for now this indicates that Net Zero considerations are largely on hold, despite the ambitions and commitment to them. This model will only create more of a reduction in standards of living and a further degradation of developed nations’ debt-to-GDP, as they borrow more in what is becoming a standard response to crises. For the GCC though, should the governments wish to take a long-term Net Zero view, then the investment cycle and 20+-year horizons to achieve this can be met.
In 2022 we’ve seen global supply chains start to speed up their capacity to mitigate the pandemic and invert some of the supply-side problems, although it should be noted that few industries are fully back to pre-pandemic demand levels. While oil prices over $100 barrel drove confidence in infrastructure and non-oil economic investment by regional governments, the price has dropped in 2023 to around $76 a barrel at the time of writing. Historical project award trends show that the higher the oil prices, the greater to commitment to major schemes of work – although there is a lag of 6–18 months. Pertinent examples include the high oil prices of 2011/12 which drove the Riyadh Metro, Abu Dhabi Midfield Terminal and Doha Metro.
It is expected to see continued economic stimulus due to post-pandemic recovery, which the region is best placed for internationally due to the fiscal balance of the oil economy. Due to an increased income of approximately $735mn (KSA) and $130mn (UAE) per day year to date, we expect economic confidence in the deployment of this reserve. KSA will likely be via PIF and UAE via a combination of central/federal government and PIF. Saudi non-oil PMI data is incredibly strong at 59.6 for April 2023, rising from 58.7 in March (any score over 50 is a growth market). This is even with the inflation pressures being seen (although at a much lower level than other countries). Although partially attributable to the post-pandemic recovery, the stimulus being provided by the PIF internal investments and market sentiment regarding the future developments of the Kingdom are driving a positive perception as well as starting to produce work orders.
The key GCC countries are expected to see extended GDP growth and KSA posted a GDP growth of 3.9% in the first quarter of 2023 and 3.0% in UAE, due largely to oil output and price rises (KSA has a 42% oil-based economy vs 16.2% for UAE). However, the benefits to the regional economies who are not major producers will be greater than most international competitors due to the trickle-down effect and inter-governmental support for them.
Within the Kingdom, there is still a significant amount of tendering of main contract works, although the awards trend is still only slightly above initial forecasts. This is in certain areas leading to ‘tender fatigue’ in the supply chain as the quantity of works being sent to market (or re-sent to market – which is common) is causing a significant rise in pre-contract costs.
With the post-pandemic recovery, poor global economic responses to the situations, the ongoing war in Ukraine and challenges around market perception of the awards in Kingdom – which are that the market will double year on year at least, construction inflation is set to peak at over 10% this year, whilst CPI (consumer price index) will only be 6% (higher than KSA government forecasts, but unless major subsidies are brought in, this estimate is closer to trend).
Construction as a contribution to GDP is steadily rising from the 2019 low, although it should be noted that this is largely a consequence of projects awarded pre-pandemic. This trend is likely to continue due to the forecast increase in awards, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of approximately 5%. When looking at construction material prices, there has been a softening in the market, as the shock to the system due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine is muted by the supply side reacting to the loss of certain input products. The price points though are still significantly above historical market trends.
When looking at the drive for development, there hasn’t been as many awards as the market expected. This presents a potential risk as, due to the major contraction in awards during the pandemic, the industry has a ‘drop off the cliff’ potential in 2023 and 2024 as projects from before the pandemic will complete. This means the country has a backlog burn issue that needs to be addressed swiftly if capacity is to be maintained, let alone grown in line with forecast requirements.
Whilst the expectation of a global recession remains on the horizon, with sustained high energy prices for the foreseeable future, Saudi Arabia is in a strong fiscal position to push on with development in line with Vision 2030 and the delivery of the giga projects won’t be abated in the short term by lack of capital to be deployed. But it may be by capacity and supply chain funding. This will mean a need to keep differing delivery models in mind, whilst also ensuring entities can attract suppliers with reasonable contracts and swift payments to ensure continued commitment from the supply chain. To conclude, the short-term future at least is bright, perhaps not as bright as market perception but certainly on a solid growth trajectory, and the fire sector is well positioned to support this growth.
About the Author
Branch President, GCC Branch – The Institution of Fire Engineers.
